My (not very good) Explanation

The Monty Hall Problem is hard to understand and even harder to explain, but I'll try my best.

Essentially the idea is that you have a higher probability of winning if you switch because originally you have a 1/3 probability of getting it right on your first try which means that theres a 2/3 probability you didn't, so switching will give you a 2/3 probability of winning while staying will give you a 1/3. That might not make sense so I'll try to explain what it means. Once you pick your original choice there are two things that can happen: either you picked right and the host opens a random door that you didn't pick or the more likely event where you picked wrong and the host opens the only door left that has a goat behind it because he can't open the door that has the money behind it or the there would be no point in the game. The important part is that the second event is more likely to occur and therefore its most likely that the money is behind the door you didn't pick.

A common analogy to help understand this is to imagine if there were 100 doors instead of 3. If you picked 1 door and the host opened the 98 other doors that had goats behind them and then offered you a chance to switch, you would probably switch. This is because in this exaggerated example its easier to see that you only had a 1/100 (1%) chance of getting it right on your first try and that doesn't change after he opens the other doors. This analogy really helped me understand it.

I think it is also important to note how people's dislike of feeling like they lost something, plays a role in their decision. Psychologically, people obviously don't like feeling like they lost something so they'll be more likely to stick with their original choice since they intuitively thought it makes no difference whether they stayed or switched. This however decreases people's chances of winning as I explained.

I don't think people should learn things for no reason, so I think there is a reason to learn this. I believe that this reminds us that we should think logically about situations instead of coming to immediate, intuitive assumptions.

I hope you learned something! Thanks for visiting my site.

Also see my about page to see some other sources that helped me understand it, and also to learn a little about me, and why I find this so interesting.